Population Growth, Homeownership and Wealth in The Triangle

Dated: December 2 2024

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The Raleigh-Durham area, along with the greater Triangle area is steadily growing. It’s also a popular place to live, as noted by the Raleigh-Durham metro area’s 2023- 2024 ranking by US News & World Report as the third Best Place to Live among 150 U.S. cities.

Part of the attraction to the Raleigh-Durham area is its business sectors in tech, aerospace and pharmaceuticals, along with its strong base of higher education. Those sectors were not impacted significantly during the pandemic and the unemployment rate in our area remained relatively stable during the pandemic.

Also, the area continues to attract major players like Google and Apple, which both are establishing a significant footprint in the Triangle.Additionally, while the real estate market in the Triangle is red hot, the cost of housing is still relatively affordable.

The Triangle area’s migration rate has been steady, and according to the North Carolina State Demographer, “Migration has been a key component of the state's growth and is likely to remain a driver of population growth over the next decade.”

The Triangle area has experienced average population growth of about 1.6% to 1.7% per year—a rate that will remain steady over the next 30 years. That means our area will add nearly 36,000 residents per year or about 700 people per week. And in the past, about one quarter of those residents were school-aged children. So, in addition to finding a place for these newcomers to live—whether apartments, condos, townhomes or single-family homes—communities will also need to continue to build more schools.

Top 10 states from which residents migrated to North Carolina in 2023:

Florida: 39,931
South Carolina: 31,858
New York: 29,175
Virginia: 25,555
Georgia: 23,519
California: 21,084
Texas: 17,335
Pennsylvania: 13,040
Maryland: 12,649
New Jersey: 9,290

Why Are People Moving To NC?

A 2024 study by United Van Lines found that 27.2% people moved to North Carolina in 2023 was to be closer to family. Another 24.8% moved here for work, while 19.7% moved to the state to retire.

According to Michael Cline, the North Carolina State Demographer, North Carolina is projected to reach 11.7 million people by 2030, according to his latest population projections. As a result of this growth, and given trends in other states shown in the US Census Bureau’s latest population estimates, North Carolina is on track to surpass the populations of Georgia and Ohio to become the 7th largest state in the nation by the early 2030s.

Homeownership is the Path to Wealth

While the real estate market is still hot today and some people feel that homeownership is escaping them, the market will level out...somewhat. According to Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of REALTORS, the worst of the housing inventory shortage is coming to an end, mortgage rates are stabilizing and job additions are continuing.

Yun also notes that homeownership is the path to wealth, as household equity in real estate is at a record high. This means there has been a huge increase in wealth for homeowners—to the tune of $35 trillion. Yun highlighted the glaring difference in estimated median net worth between homeowners ($415,000) and renters ($10,000) in 2024. 

“Homeowners’ wealth steadily rises while renters’ wealth does not,” said Yun. “If you don’t enter the housing market, you are in the renter class where wealth is not being accumulated. If you want to participate in the housing market, the sooner you get in, the sooner you accumulate wealth.”

It is still a great time to buy a home—even though today the hurdle to do so is higher. However, Yun predicts that mortgage rates will level out between 5.5% and 6.5%, and he expects the Federal Reserve to make four rounds of rates cuts in 2025.

For the longer term, home ownership will continue to be a great investment in the Triangle as our population growth will create and maintain a steady supply of home buyers. So, if you’re thinking about buying a home, there’s no better time than today.

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Tania Tinsley Little

Tania Tinsley Little is a licensed North Carolina real estate broker, REALTOR®, and accredited home stager serving the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill Triangle area. She is the founder of The Total Pac....

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